India: Cotton and Products Update

FAS Mumbai forecasts MY 2026/27 India cotton production at 24.5 million 480 lb. bales from 11.5 million hectares. Yields are forecast two percent lower at 464 kg per hectare due to forecasts for below-normal rainfall through August–September, with western and central India at greatest risk of extended dry spells. Although the cumulative monsoon deficit narrowed to 12 percent below normal by August 12, planting remains two percent behind last year, while reservoir storage is at 60 percent of capacity. Post raises its domestic mill use forecast to 26.2 million 480 lb. bales, driven by textile and apparel export orders. Higher minimum support prices and tighter crop prospects are expected to support firm lint prices, prompting mills to bridge fiber shortages through higher imports using duty-free export mechanisms if the general tariff exemption expires after October 31. As a result, raw cotton exportable surplus will remain constrained as available fiber is directed toward higher-value downstream manufacturing.