Severe El Niño Drought Reduces Kenya 2026/27 Corn Production
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USDA estimates Kenya 2026/27 corn production at 2.2 million metric tons (mmt) in September 2026, down 39 percent from the 5-year average. The large production drop is due to a very strong El Niño drought from June to August and it caused widespread crop failure in Kenya’s northern Rift Valley and western counties. The largest seasonal rainfall deficits from June to August occurred in several major corn producing counties. These large rainfall deficits in Kenya’s grain basket caused the largest national corn production reduction from the 5-year average during the past 50 years (Figure 1).
An El Niño-induced drought from June through August was forecast in May from record warm El Niño water temperatures measured in the central Pacific. Correspondingly, rainfall departures from June through August were greater than 300 millimeters in some counties (Figure 2), and the midseason drought decimated the corn crop in northern Rift Valley counties such as Trans Nzoia (14% of total production), Uasin Gishu (10%), Bungoma (7%), and Nakuru (6%).